Is a Gabonese-type Transition Possible in Cameroon? Part I

Dibussi Tande

On June 8, 2009, Omar Bongo Ondimba, Gabon’s 73-year old president, died after a record 43 years in office. Political observers keenly watched the political transition not merely because after close to half a century of Bongo’s iron rule, Gabon was moving into uncharted territory with the potential for instability but also because like in many other Francophone African countries, Gabon did not have a constitutional successor – a dauphin – to the President.

 
Ali-Ben Bongo of Gabon with Paul Biya  (c) PRC
 
Among those watching the Gabonese situation closely were the ruling elite in neighboring Cameroon where 77-year President Biya was preparing for yet another seven-year presidential mandate in 2011, which would most likely eventually lead to a Gabonese-type situation in the country – the laws of nature being what they are, President Biya has less, not more time left at the helm of the state.

He either dies in power just like Omar Bongo, or ends up a senile and pathetic figure like Habib Bourguiba of Tunisia or Houphouet Boigny of Cote d’Ivoire in their last days in power. Cameroon’s political elite therefore viewed the post-Omar Bongo transition process in Gabon as a testing board for the no-constitutional-successor political system which most constitutional scholars and political analysts believe would be  “a definite recipe for acrimony, chaos and disaster down the road...”  for Cameroon.

Article 13
Following the death of Omar Bongo on June 8, 2009, Gabon was confronted with a peculiar constitutional situation; it had a Vice President, Didjob Divungi Di Ndinge, who was the President’s deputy but not his constitutional successor, and a Prime Minister, Jean Eyeghe Ndong, Head of Government, also not the President’s constitutional successor. To resolve this constitutional conundrum, Article 13 of the Gabonese constitution stipulated that in the event of a permanent vacancy at the helm of the state, the powers of the president would be temporarily exercised by the President of the Senate or the First Vice President of the Senate if the Senate President was unable to do so.

Article 13 also stipulated that the Interim President was required to organize presidential elections (in which he or she could not be a candidate) within 30-45 days, unless in the event of a force majeure established by the Constitutional Court. 

Overview of Gabonese Transition
Two days after the death of President Bongo, Rose Francine Rogombé, the 66-year old female President of the Senate, was sworn in as the Interim President of Gabon with the primary, if not sole task of managing the post-Bongo transition to its logical conclusion.

On August 30, the presidential election was organized with 11 candidates taking part. Ali Ben Bongo, the son of the late President and candidate of the ruling PDG party, was declared the winner and sworn in as President about a month later, thereby concluding a transition which went on far much smoother than was generally expected.

The Cameroonian ruling elite were quite pleased with the relatively peaceful transition in Gabon which confirmed the continuity of the “système Bongo” and preserved the privileges and powers of members of the ancien regime who would have been swept away and even persecuted had anti-Bongo forces taken control of the transition process.  The outcome of the Gabonese transition therefore comforted Cameroon’s ruling elite in their belief that the no-automatic-successor system of government remained the best option for Cameroon. No surprise, therefore, that even before Ali Bongo was officially sworn in as President of Gabon, President Biya went out of his way of way on September 11, 2009 to receive the president-elect with full state honors in Yaounde.

Nonetheless, while the ruling elite in Cameroon may have reason to jubilate over the Gabonese transition, they are most likely drawing the wrong lessons from the said transition, and/or not paying enough attention to the actual details of that transition which reveal a number of disquieting issues that could be potentially destabilizing for Cameroon in the same circumstances. Let’s look at just three of these key issues.

1. The Issue of a Dauphin
Even though Gabon did not have a constitutional successor to President Bongo, it had been an open secret for at least a decade that Ali-Ben Bongo, the President’s son and the country’s defense minister was Omar’s chosen successor; an heir apparent who had the support not only of the ruling PDG party, of which he was a Vice President, but most importantly, also of the military.

Yet, even with all this institutional and military muscle behind him, Ali Bongo’s ascension to the “throne” was not a cakewalk due to the strident opposition that he faced, most notably from within the ruling PDG itself.  In fact, during the PDG’s brutal presidential nomination process, there was a record 10 candidates alongside the “Chosen One’, many of whom had enough clout to upset the applecart; among them, Prime Minister Eyeghé Ndong, also a Vice-President of the PDG, Casimir Oye-Mba, former Governor of the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) and former Prime Minister of Gabon, and Daniel Ona Ondo, the First Vice-President of the National Assembly. The nomination process which resulted in Ali Bongo being selected as the PGD candidate was filled with anger and acrimony, with the other candidates claiming that the process had been rigged to favor the late president’s son. In fact, Eyeghé Ndong and Casimir Oye-Mba eventually quit the PDG to run as independent candidates against Ali Bongo.

The only reason the ruling party, and with it the Gabonese state, did not implode during these tense days was because over the years, Ali Bongo had used his position as the preferred presidential child (over his half-sister Pascaline Bongo who also nursed presidential ambitions) and as defense minister to build a solid network of supporters within the ruling class and the military who came to his rescue in his time of need – a military which had already thrown its lot behind the ruling partying after concluding that its corporate interests would be best protected by continuity rather than a rupture with the ancien regime.

In Cameroon it is a different story altogether. There is no single individual within the government or ruling party, who stands out of the enough to be considered a true and potential replacement of President Biya, a “consensus candidate” or “candidate of continuity”. In fact, individuals with presidential ambitions are playing it close to the chest as a result of the morbid fear that has gripped the political class following the decapitation of “G11” (Génération 2011), the mysterious think-tank which was supposedly created by a group of government ministers, director generals of public corporations and army officers interested in taking power in 2011, some of whom – the alleged ring leaders – are now languishing in the Kondengui maximum security prison for a variety of real and imagined crimes against the state…

While it is still unclear whether the G11 was real or just the figment of the imagination of folks who were involved in a vicious guerre de positionnement”  among the ruling elite, the fact that its alleged ring leaders are all in jail has cast a pall over any substantive discussions among the elite about post-Biya era. In fact, to insulate themselves against possible accusations that they may have presidential ambitions, (or worse, may be planning a coup d’état), the ruling class has resorted to the strategy of vociferously clamoring for a Biya life presidency!

Thus, unlike Bongo’s Gabon, Cameroon’s constitutional vacuum is accompanied by dangerous political uncertainty with no single individual within government circles standing out as a credible successor to Biya, in spite of the different names being regularly bandied around in official and unofficial circles. Similarly, while any CPDM candidate in a post-Biya election will have an automatic edge over all other candidates thanks to the huge resources at the party’s disposal and to the backing of the military which is also supporting continuity just as in Gabon, there is no one within the CPDM with the clout or network to emerge a credible presidential candidate. Hence, Cameroon’s inevitable guerre the succession, which will instantly etch itself onto the country’s well-known geo-political fault lines, will be worse than anything that we witnessed in Gabon. The result might be a remake of the worse days of the “smoldering years” of the early 1990s with the army playing the determining role by either throwing its lot behind a specific candidate, or why not, taking power for itself…

To be continued...

Comments

[Son of the Soil aka Minneapolis Man.]

There are many CPDM members who shall take the relay from Mr. Biya. Frank is one of them.

[damike]

It's for that reason, Frank Biya is enrolled at the faculte du Science Jurisdique at the University of Montreal, Quebec, Canada. The political quagmire and the "Bongo syndrome" seems apparent as far as power transition is concerned in Cameroon. ("Post Mbi Mvondo" regime)

[The Entrepreneur]

....But this is where a plus goes to Mr Biya and Cameroon...that there is no designated successor...even the son of a peasant could tommorrow be the next President whenever the biological clock of the incumbent ticks to a halt...

...In other words: in Cameroon it is an open field, even a hunter within the 'CPDM' could be the next president....and thats a plus. You can't say so for Nigeria, Cote D'Ivoire, South Africa, Kenya, Gabon, etc..where powerful elites have held the lines of succession hostage...See the number of sons and daughters of peasants now recuperating in Kondengui after their 5 minutes of fame as Ministers but the culture of poverty would push them into greedy pilferers and corrupters...

Your hypothesis may only hold true, if and only if, the situation in Cameroon degenerates in the contest for power the new power block from centre-south feels cheated....especially in unfair elections; then they may use their power base in the army to upset a possible smooth transition....

It just seems Mr Biya is a perpetual student of politics and its science... and he has some tricks up his sleeve that would only be unleashed 2 years from now (post 2011 plus 1). Lets wait and see. And more grease to that biological clock as it ticks loud and clear...

[Hyacienth]

It is a pity that the VERY BAD Examples are being copied.
If it worked in Gabon and else where is no guarantee that it will work in cameroon. Especially that it is against the will of the people.
I will personally advice Mr President to end his carrier in a big style by taking the example of Mandela.
Organise free and faire elections and pray to God to give your inspiration on how to go about it.
ameroonian people just like many african people be it in gabon ,zimbabwe you can continue the list are endouring life and keep endouring. It still does not sound to African leaders that enough is enough.

It is better to put things in order before things go off your hand.
I strongly believe in change. You have proven to be an obstacle to change. I am very sure you can not twist the truth forever.

hange is at the corner. It is wise for you to aline to change before it takes you unaware.
You believe and think you have everything in control to do it in your own way.

There is a better way. That you are not interested. You have despised God. Since you have refused to listen to our voices, you give us no chance nor consideration, we give glory to God for the kind way you are treating us your subjects. We commend your deeds good or bad into the hands of the lord. May the lord pay you according to your works.
may God use thesame standard you use on us to deal with you.

[Mbuli Rene]

Interesting article , full of insight. Kudos for the good analysis Mr Dibussi. If our analysis have both pointed fingers to a possible crisis before and/or after 2011, then the Etoudi despot must be ready to effect a 360 degrees positive and affirmative action for change or face the full measures of justice cos we will prefer to have him alive when shit hits the fans.

[Time Boy]

Hi Dibussi,
Your analyis is quite interesting, but there is a missing element which is the difference in levels of socio-political awareness between Gabonese and Cameroonian populations. Unlike their Gabonese counterparts, Cameroonians have witnessed a series socio-economic and political upheavals which have to a larg extend galvanised the people and heightened awareness on politica issues even at the grassroot level. Any attempt by the present regime to copy the nonsense going on at our backyard would not only by politically untenable but will be met with a backlash by the population. Biya himself is not unware of this and I bet you he won't contemplate it.

Thanks for the insightful thoughts. Your analysis is quite enlightening.
By the way, is there any means of supporting your work by way of donations? I'll be obliged.

Time Boy.

[njimaforboy]

...i think for someone to make the remark that Frank Biya is a capable CPDM member, able to succeed his father is very irresponsible. This speaks volumes about u, your level education, your thought process, and to some degree your sexul orientation.
This has nothing to do with homophobia, but just theories put forth by psychologist on why people choose to be gay.

[faison]

Togo. That is where this king of dynastic transition started from Eyadema to Eyadema II. Will there be a Biya II?

Before critiquing Dibussi's analysis, it is worth waiting for the other two points that he is going to make.

Sarkozy said he was going to end Francafrique. What he meant was that it was time for francafrique 2.0 or second generation.

[Nsom Joseph]

The way things have been coined in Cameroon by the CPDM regime makes me to agree with your analysis. But if BIYA is nursing such intentions, then I am sorry. They can never materialise in Cameroon.