The Biya Succession Debate: When Fact, Fiction and Fantasy Collide

By Dibussi Tande

According to an article from Le Journal Chrétien, which is currently making rounds on the Internet, President Paul Biya is preparing to resign from office. The article states that French have decided that his successor will be from the Muslim North, “in keeping with neocolonial tradition”. The list of potential successors has allegedly been narrowed down to two prominent Northerners: (1) Ahmadou Ali, the current Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Justice, and (2) Sardou Hayatou, a former Prime Minister and current head of BEAC.

The article claims that its sources have indicated that the preference for Northerners is based on the fact that “neocolonial networks” in France want someone from those ethnic groups that have collaborated with European imperialists since the days of the slave trade. Hence, in case the northern option doesn’t materialize, these networks would prefer a Douala, Bakweri, or even a Bulu President.

The article contends that Biya is also preparing a “diabolic” gift for his successor. By “sacrificing” a few individuals within his inner circle to the anti-corruption charade, the President intends to stir up trouble and leave behind a chaotic and ungovernable country. The article, however, fails to explain the benefits of this option to Biya or his courtesans.

The article ends with another doomsday succession scenario in which there will be a bloodbath if a northerner becomes the President. In this scenario, Beti hardliners in the army, notably those who crushed the northern-led coup attempt of 1984, will not sit by and watch power handed back to the Northerners without a fight. 

Wishful Thinking?
Coming just days after the 73-year old Biya took ill during a visit to Equatorial Guinea the article definitely picks up on increasingly strident debates about presidential succession in Cameroon. That said, the article doesn’t stand the test of scrutiny. Not only is it a mixture of fact, fiction, fantasy and wishful thinking, it shows a poor grasp of Cameroon’s colonial history. Even more significant, it barely discusses the geopolitics of power in Cameroon, particularly the “North-South axis” which made it possible for Paul Biya to become president in the first place -- and which explains why northerners are considered by many to be the frontrunners in the presidential succession race.

To put things in their proper perspective, we will take an in-depth look at the North-South axis, which is also known as the as the Beti-Foulbe tribal hegemonic alliance, in a subsequent article.

Tags: Cameroon Paul Biya Africa

Comments

[Nkosi Jacob]

Having read the article before, one would not hesitate to classify it within the realms of RUMOURS as treated by Francis B Nyamjo and analysed by Dibussi Tande. As stated in an article handling rumours on this blog, such information is fuelled by the lack of "official information" from the ruling class.

The author[s] of this article either by coincidence or by intent happen to touch on the succession issue at a time when there are alot of constitutional draw backs. Should it occur today that Biya becomes incapacitated, the 1996 Owona-led constitution stipulates that it is the President of the senate who becomes interim head of state until a new head of state is elected. We all know that the senate doesn't exist yet. So should it happen that the current President is no more able to rule and reign what happens to Cameroon?

[Ma Mary]

What happens when Biya can no longer rule will be the same thing that happened in Togo. France will pick a 'reliable' successor and shoe horn him into power.Democracy only works when the neocolonialist likes and predicts the result. What is Bakweri doing on that list? France will never allow any Southern Cameroonian to be President of la Republique. They are only setting up the Bakweri as targets if this thing turns bad.

[Ma Mary]

Now I understand why the Americans insist upon knowing exactly what business takes their president to the doctor. A president's health is not private business once someone decides to be president. It is important public information. Failure to disclose creates rumours and instability. The Camerounese elite tendency to hide everything only makes things worse. But these people cannot help themselves, can they? There was a Mbida, then an Ahidjo then a Biya, giving credence to the expectation that the next one will be Dantata or Haji somebody. The pattern seems to bypass swaths of capable Bassa and entire megacities of competent Bamileke. PLEASE not the Duala. Suave for sure, articulate no doubt, with plenty of good people but not in the play, because like the Bamileke and Bassa, they are not 'reliable'. They might attempt to move from the french orbit.

Bakweris are just the anglofou taste of the day. Any anglophone is unreliable. Just see what they did. Although they have two successive prime ministers, the dirty anglophone ingrates still saw it fit to disgrace the government in the African Human Rights Court.

[Yde]

Le Journal Chretien should start doing the job of cross referencing their sources.
The only reference on their website links the article to www.camer.be .

The author of this article is actually Ndzana Seme.

http://www.africanindependent.com/cam_succession_biya_strategie030306.html

As you can see on his website, he signed and posted this article on March 03 2006.

Ndzana Seme does not have the most reliable sources.
He quoted "au moins dix sources camerounaises" as saying that Biya was in a coma, and that he had been evacuated to Europe following his malaise last week in Equatorial Guinea.
A few months ago after a similar gaffe his excuse was that he was tricked by the government in an attempt to unveil his insider sources.

France's influence in Cameroon has dramatically shrunk. Cameroon's multipolar socio-political canvas is a blessing in this respect.

[etienne daho]

MA Mary,
pourquoi les insultes envers les autres. If you're here I think the purpose should be to build up, not destroy through invective and diatribe. What a shame!! Listen to yourself again. Please try another approach.

"But these people cannot help themselves, can they? There was a Mbida, then an Ahidjo then a Biya, giving credence to the expectation that the next one will be Dantata or Haji somebody. The pattern seems to bypass swaths of capable Bassa and entire megacities of competent Bamileke. PLEASE not the Duala. Suave for sure, articulate no doubt, with plenty of good people but not in the play, because like the Bamileke and Bassa, they are not 'reliable'. They might attempt to move from the french orbit.

Bakweris are just the anglofou taste of the day. Any anglophone is unreliable. Just see what they did. Although they have two successive prime ministers, the dirty anglophone ingrates still saw it fit to disgrace the government in the African Human Rights Court."

[Ma Mary]

Regrets at hurting your sensibilities, Ettiene. When I say Bakweris are dirty anglo ingrates, it is meant to be tongue in cheek. Cannot see the tongue, can you? But it is true, there are anglo flavors of the day or month or epoch. Just check the record. They are all tokens.

[Nkosi Jacob]

Ma Mary
Sometimes you speak "too big" for these guys to understand!

[Ma Mary]

Na wetin porsin go do now, Jacob? We might physically be in the same space as frogs, (sorry i meant to say Camerounese), yet we inhabit different universes in our minds and souls yet unificationists vainly expect us to well, unify. Do you know why I call them frogs? Because I want them to call us what they really think. To them, we are not Camerounese: we are Biafrans, enemis dance la maison and so on. Once in a while somebody makes a slip, after having one too many or when just intoxicated from power over anglos, les Baminda la and so on. I would like them to call us the names that they use for us between them, when we are out of ear shot. That would be a good start. HOnesty is always good start. No, in confrontation, they paint this idealistic picture of the pit toilet republique and we are the bad guys. shoot.

[Nkaki Samuel]

What gives France the right to think they can keep on deciding who becomes President of Cameroon? That country has such an unfair influence over our nation. It's just not right.