Dibussi Tande
"This is the famous “politique de pourrissement” whereby the regime allows the political situation to 'rot', with the expectation that those who have taken to the streets will ultimately be worn down by the repression and the government’s intransigence. This strategy worked in 1991 and regime hardliners believe that it will work again this time around."
Debris blocking the main highway in Buea (c) Orock Eta
Some 72 hours after riots broke out in Douala before spreading to most major towns of the country including Yaounde, the capital city, President Biya officially responded to the ongoing crisis in a nationwide televised address. Prior to that speech, there was hope, and even an expectation, in many quarters that the president would be conciliatory in his remarks, and probably make some concessions to the rioters whose demands ranged from the respect of presidential term limits to the scrapping of recent hikes in the price of fuel. Instead, President Biya refused to budge an inch and delivered a speech that was defiant:
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Our country is witnessing a situation which brings back unpleasant memories of a period we thought was long gone... For some people, who by the way, did not hide their intentions, the objective is to obtain through violence what they were unable to obtain through the ballot box… The demons who manipulated these youths behind the scenes, were not bothered about the risk that they made them to run by exposing them to confrontations with the forces of law and order...
Those behind these manipulations definitely did not have the good of our people in their mind. A country cannot be built through destruction... Cameroonians know that disorder can only bring about calamity and misery. We cannot allow that to happen. To those who are responsible for manipulating the youth to achieve their aims, I want to tell them that their attempts are doomed to failure. All legal means available to Government will be brought into play to ensure the rule of law.
The speech was reminiscent of Biya’s (in)famous June 27, 1991 speech made at the height of the “Ghost Town” civil disobedience campaign in which he lashed out at opposition parties for promoting violence and described the national conference as “sans objet”:
Violence, vendetta, vandalism, terrorism risk becoming the order of the day. Intimidation, threats, illegal strikes are all used to destabilize our country. Is this what Cameroonians expect of democracy? – Cars, houses, schools have been burnt down, shops and factories looted and plundered, citizens molested. Is this what Cameroonians expect of democracy? – Institutions are called into question. Leaders as well. Intolerance, sectarianism and tribalism have become the order of the day. Is this what Cameroonians expect of democracy? – To humiliate the people, to want to bring the government to its knees, to paralyze the country and its institutions... Is this what Cameroonians expect of democracy?... Order shall reign...
These are the “unpleasant memories of a period we thought was long gone” that the President referred to in yesterday’s speech…
Since that televised address, Cameroonians have been asking themselves why the President chose to stoke the flames rather than outline a strategy for easing the tension and addressing the root causes of the riots. Some have even argued that Biya’s reaction can only come from someone is completely cut off from the reality of what is going on in the country. But Biya is neither senile nor ignorant of the Cameroonian realities; there is a method to his madness. His strategy of defiance is rooted in an analysis of the forces at play and their (in)ability to maintain a sustained uprising against the regime.
An Explosion of Pent Up Anger, not an Organized Uprising
The Biya regime is banking on the fact that the same reasons that ultimately led to the collapse of the six-month civil disobedience campaign of 1991 are still very present today; an emasculated civil service which cannot join any anti-regime movement for fear of losing privileges; an embryonic civil society which is in no position to take control of, and organize, the protest movement; a security and military apparatus so steeped in corruption and repression that it has little option but to support Biya, in spite of occasional rumblings of discontent within the ranks, etc. In addition, the ongoing rioting is not part of an organized popular uprising with effective control structures but a spontaneous explosion of pent-up anger. History has shown that such explosions usually peter out if no organized force steps in to channel all that energy and anger towards clearly defined objectives.
So the situation today is unlike that of 1991 when close to 30 political parties and associations, working under the banner of the National Coordination of Opposition Parties and Associations, were able to take complete control of the streets in seven of the country’s 10 provinces. To make matters worse, the political parties which dominated the political terrain in the early 1990s such as the SDF, UNDP and UPC have been severely weakened by internal wrangling and regime maneuvers, and are in no position to step in and fill the void at a national level.
"La politique de pourrissement"
Based on this assessment of the political terrain, the Biya regime has decided to wait it out in the hopes that the protesters will eventually tire out and simply walk off the streets. This is the famous “politique de pourrissement” (loosely translated as the “policy of decay”) whereby the regime allows the political situation to rot, with the expectation that those who have taken to the streets will ultimately be worn down or beaten into submission by the repression and the government’s intransigence. This strategy worked in 1991 and regime hardliners believe that it will work again this time around.
Thus, in spite of concerns within the Biya regime that the situation might degenerate into a nationwide revolt or even a coup, the regime is, nonetheless, confident that it will eventually weather the storm thanks to the largely uncoordinated nature of the riots and the repressive machinery of the state.
So is the Biya regime correct that a sit-tight policy will eventually defeat the hydra-headed monster that has taken over the streets? Or, will it ultimately pay the price for misreading the situation and for its arrogance?
Whatever the outcome, this week’s events have peeled back that illusion of “stability” that Cameroon has cloaked itself in for close to two decades, and has exposed the level of deep-seated discontent with and contempt for the Biya regime. The regime will probably survive this time around, but it might not be so lucky down the road…
I like the weaknesses of the pro-democracy / anti-Biya forces which you have outlined in this article. Hopefully, the "opposants" are listening and will eventually beat Biya in his game not by relying or capitalizing on spontaneous outbursts of protest but by actually planning and implementing a people's uprising. In the meantime, while I agree that Biya may have dodged the bullet this time, this is only a brief respite now that the people are aware of their power. Another lesson from the villes mortes is that after the calm, violence follows shortly thereafter...
BTW, you blog was briefly profiled by the TV news network France 24 - http://www.france24 .com/fr/20080228 -net-cameroun- paul-biya- opposition- blogosphere
Posted by: Ebong | February 28, 2008 at 02:43 PM
Whatever way this past events are analysed, one thing is clear, and that is, the regime is now aware discontent is huge. That means they will have to thread carefully in the coming days because somehow the masses will carry the day sooner or later. They least expected this eruption. The days ahead might not be so rosy as expected for them. Their planned agendas might have to be re-worked some how.
Opposition parties or not, they like the Biyaist are just the very thing. A bunch of ex-cnu/cpdm converts. An extention of neocolonialist agents. I pray they be rendered irrelevant by the masses. They should back-off. They claimed to be the people's voice , yet their continous cozy affairs and irrelevant compromises with the regime in place has instead helped to legimitise the present claim that Cameroon is a democracy. What is it that an anti-establishment front the SDF is doing in parliament?. Which opposition are we talking about. An opposition exist in a democracy. Is Cameroon a democracy? , our country is still to move into the democratisation phase. What we have today is just some kind of a cosmetic opening. That transition to democratisation is stalled because of ill strategic compromises by those outfits spin doctors keep refering to as opposition. Let the masses take control of their destiny. Analyst can spin this their way. Infact this is just a preamble of things to come.
Posted by: The Southewsterner | February 28, 2008 at 07:44 PM
Mr Paul Barthelemy's speech was arrogant,bashful and belligerent to say the least.The man has the effrontery to covertly justify the use of fire arms against innocent Cameroonians expecially the young martyrs whose lifes were cut short by the bullets of His Superfluous Excellencies arm-tutting buffoons.Not even once does Mr Biya offer a word of condolence to the bereaved families.Thereby insinuating that all those who were assassinated were simply "vandals".Not even once does Mr Biya mention the problems that sent youths in the first place on the streets.The cancerous unemployment,high cost of basic commodities,lack of educational facilities,institutionalised neglect by the regime in every aspect of our lifes etc is not his cup of tea.What does this tell Cameroonians especially the youths?
Mr Biya is simply telling us the youths that our acts are inconsequential,that we count for nothing,that we are expendable and that our lifes depends on his souvereign mercy.Over the years Mr Biya has consistently shown a blatant disregard for us the youths,the guarantors of Cameroon's future,the overseers of our Father's legacies.Is it not the same man who in the early 1990's told striking UniYao students that politics was an exclusive preserve for politicians.Hear him;"Laisser la politique pour les politiciens et l'école pour les écoliers".Thus waving aside the plight of students,ridiculing and minimising them.
During his last mimicry on Youth day(11th of February),the issue of the revision of our Fundamental Law was conspicuously absent from his speech.Ofcourse,what is the business of youths in such 'grandiose state matters',surely that's what went through his mind when writing the speech or did someone write it for him? While you the youths were excitedly watching the African Cup of Nations, the the CPDM mafia went to work formulating the draft of the ammendment of the Fundamental Law in their Congress in Yaoundé.They thought they could dupe us with football,unfortunately the Lions never gave them that pleasure.Every day we are told that the "youths are the leaders of tomorrow".My stomach churns every time I hear it.
This phrase is often used by political Methuselah's to make dreamer's out of the youths.To intoxicate their young minds with the photogenic impression that contemporary issues donot concern them and that they have no business in present affairs.Thus meaning that their future is in the hands of others.
But we must not allow our destinies to be defined by those who have bequeath no legacy unto us.By those who have destroyed our hopes and thrown our aspirations to the wind.We must see ourselves as the leaders of today.For any child who is conscious of his future will hold an irresponsible father to account and not wait until he is in his grave.
Since the attainment of the completion point of the Highly Indebted Poor Countries Initiative(HIPC),where are the fallouts which was supposed to take care of the problems faced by youths?It is time we draw inspiration from young patriots like Charles Blé Goudé of Cote d'Ivoire and others all over the continent of Africa who have fought and who are fighting to change these political systems that have made us estranged people in our own countries and turned us into beggars,vagabonds,almsmen in other people's countries.
Yes,Mr Biya has thrown the gauntlet and has challenged us the youths to pick it up.We must prove to him that we can pick it up.We must prove to him that the people always have the last say and that no amount oppression and repression can buffer the detrermined will of a people.We must must make him know that his 1319 days in office will not be added by a single day.We must prove to him that the torch of liberty and democracy has been passed on to a new generation that is determined to protect our country coveted interests.
Nga Adolph,
Leuven_Belgium
Posted by: Nga Adolph | February 28, 2008 at 08:33 PM
What that means, if the old forces like the SDF have been bought and spent is that a new and more radical leadership is bound to arise, especially because the use of deadly force has been more exhuberantly embraced in 2008 by Biya's Camerounese Harm Forces.
Posted by: Ma Mary | February 29, 2008 at 12:25 PM
Ma Mary, stop wasting your time with all the SDF hammering. The last thing on Cameroonians' minds right now is the SCNC so don't think hammering SDF makes you and your lofty history club ,aka SCNC, any important.
Posted by: UnitedstatesofAfrica | February 29, 2008 at 02:15 PM