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« Full Text (English): Law on the Suppression of Acts of Terrorism in Cameroon | Main | Staving off Boko Haram: Why Cameroon Must Unilaterally Exercise the Right of Hot Pursuit (Part 2) »

January 13, 2015


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Emmanuel Nuesiri

Non of the experts you cite in explaining the decline of the Nigerian army include the issue of espionage and weakening of the Nigerian army by elements in the army sympathetic to Boko Haram.

Boko Haram is increasing the ferocity of its attacks as Nigerian presidential elections draw near, and this is putting pressure on Nigerians to vote out the incumbent president.

While Boko Haram has links with other terrorist organizations in Africa, its current actions seem to indicate that it wants to damage any remnant of political credibility of the Jonathan led government before the February elections.

If General Buhari is voted to power, Boko Haram might just de-escalate their activities, and who knows, its fighters might even accept an amnesty sweetened by large financial transfers, like what we have seen with the Niger-Delta militants.

Thus, while there are reasonable grounds to call for hot pursuit, lets see if the outcome of the presidential elections will change the dynamics on the ground.


Attack on Baga: When Boko Haram attacked some of "the soldiers ran away, they gave their guns to civilians in exchange for clothes" - https://soundcloud.com/bbc-world-service/raped-slaughtered-like-animals


Analysis: Poor equipment, leadership and tactics hamper Nigeria’s fight against Boko Haram


Accusations and counter accusations will not solve any problem. Two questions immediately come into mind.
1. Who are the Boko Harams?
2. What do they want?
If we can not answer the first question, it becomes very difficult to attempt the second.
Granted, prior to the death of Musa Yaradua, it was agreed that power will be rotating from the north to the south in Nigeria and from the south to the north.Yaradua from the north did not end his mandate and therefore someone from the north was supposed to replace him to finish his mandate before power moves to the south. Instead, GEJ from the south was brought in to finish the mandate reason why Boko Haram has to intensify her activities especially in this 2015 as there are elections in Nigeria to make a mess of the administration of GEJ. Her activities will wane if Buhari eventually wins but who knows?

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